Progressed heliocentric planets lean bullish

Stock market rally could continue into August

Stocks finished higher last week despite some volatility brought on by renewed hostilities between the US and Iran and another spike in oil prices. Despite the inflationary threat posed by higher oil prices, the Fed opted to leave interest rates unchanged.

The positive weekly outcome was somewhat unexpected as I thought we might have seen a bit more downside from the double station near-square of Mercury and Saturn (July 23 and July 26) as well as the semisquare of Saturn and the North Lunar Node on July 30. Our backtests of these patterns showed a strong bearish bias, especially in the days following the stations.

For the 45-degree semisquare of Saturn and the North Node, the updated cumulative charts below suggest that the potential fallout from the current alignment has been earlier than the post-alignment period in which the mean and median dip below the zero line. In that sample of 27 cases, the negative effects are typically after the exact semisquare which in the current case occurred July 30. The early bearishness roughly matches the scale of the average decline although it has been pulled forward in time almost a full month. It is impossible to say if this effect has simply manifested early due to other concurrent alignments or if we will see more downside in August.

It is a similar story in the narrower sample of 4 cases in which the Saturn-North Node semisquare is limited to instances in which Saturn is retrograde as in the current alignment. Is the meat of the decline yet to come in August or has its effects come early due to other factors? Again, this question is unanswerable. However, it is possible we can expect some mean reversion to take place and for the price changes from the current alignment (red line) to rise towards the long term mean and median.

Last week's volatility also manifested earlier than we might expect given the near-square alignment of stationary Mercury and stationary Saturn. The prices associated with the current alignment (red line) have dipped well below this pattern's mean and median. While only consisting of 6 previous cases, the specificity of this pattern may mean that it is more directly analogous to the current alignment than would otherwise by the case. In other words, what is loses in its small sample size, it gains in its closer analog. On the whole, Mercury-Saturn squares are only marginally bearish (<-0.5%) but become more bearish when Mercury stations direct at the end of its retrograde station. The bearish effect is further increased when Saturn is also stationing retrograde. In that double station near-square scenario (n=3), the average decline is close to -6% peak-to-trough.

But here we should note that current pattern (red line) has mostly reached its average time duration of maximum decline which bottoms out about 9 days (9d) after the initial Mercury direct station (July 23). The current decline has also almost reached the mean decline level implying that stock prices may not fall much further from here. And while prices could mimic the choppiness of the mean and median (blue lines), it is difficult to make any bearish assumptions from this updated cumulative trend chart.

Finally, we should re-examine the effects of the updated Jupiter-Uranus sextile. Unlike the above two Saturn-based alignments, this Jupiter-Uranus sextile has historically produced a mostly bullish effect. The 29-case sample that includes both 60- and 300-degree alignments is characterized by a pronounced decline around the day of the exact sextile. Interestingly, the current alignment has echoed that pattern fairly closely as stocks have pulled back since mid-July. But now this pattern is entering its more bullish phase from 10d to 30d, i.e. 10 days after the July 21 exact sextile (July 31) until 30 days after (Aug 20).

The bullish effect of this pattern is stronger if we limit it to just 60-degree sextiles as in the current case. Although only consisting of 13 cases, this effect is robust and several of the tested intervals reached statistical significance. The mean bullish effect was almost 5% through the 60-day test period and most of gains occurred after the exact sextile. Whatever the ultimate bearish effect of the Saturn alignments, this is clearly a bullish influence for the month of August that might well offset any lingering bearishness.

In light of last week's volatility, it is conceivable that the bearish influence of these two Saturn alignments may soon wane. Lower lows below Wednesday's FOMC low are therefore not guaranteed, especially with the Jupiter-60-Uranus influence seemingly gaining strength and the upcoming Jupiter-conjunct solar eclipse. But if lower lows are not certain, a powerful V-shaped rally out of the Jul 29 FOMC low also seems improbable as the Mercury-Saturn and Saturn-North Node alignments are likely to have at least some lingering negative influence.

The heliocentric tertiary progressed Mercury-Venus trine

Overall, there is a mix of influences as we begin the month of August. The prospect of the Jupiter-Saturn trine on August 31 only clouds the issue of whether August will be bullish or bearish. Our previous study of this 120-degree Jupiter-Saturn alignment suggested it had no clear bias. It may have, at times, acted a pivot date (i.e marking the trend change from bearish to bullish or vice-versa), although even then it was not a reliable indicator.

A more bullish influence may be found in the progressed heliocentric chart of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), dated May 17, 1792. As regular readers will know, I like to monitor the various progressed planetary positions of key natal charts such as the NYSE and NASDAQ. When major progressed aspects form in these natal charts, stock prices are more likely to move in accordance with the nature of the planets involved in the alignment. Saturn-based progressed alignments tend to be bearish, while alignments involving benefic planets like Mercury, Venus and Jupiter tend to be bullish.

On September 2, 2026, there will be an exact 120-degree trine aspect between tertiary progressed Mercury and tertiary progressed Venus in the heliocentric chart of the NYSE. While the more commonly-used secondary progressions symbolically equate a calendar day for a year of clock time, tertiary progressions equate a calendar day for a lunar month (29.5 days). This tertiary progressed 120-degree alignment of Mercury and Venus occurs every 10 to 12 years. If we include the 240-degree trine by counterclockwise reckoning, these trines occur in pairs every 3 to 4 years. The relative infrequency of this alignment makes its upcoming occurrence potentially important for understanding market dynamics in the coming weeks.

The chart below gives the price data at various intervals before and after the tertiary progressed Mercury-Venus trine. Prices on the DJIA were recorded starting at 40 days ("-40d") before the exact trine aspect and continued at 5-day intervals until the exact trine ("0d"), ending at 40 days after the trine ("40d"). The 40-day interval corresponds to a 7- or 8-degree orb between Mercury and Venus. The sample consists of 16 previous cases dating from 1940 to 2019.

The summary statistics table below analyzes the price changes across various intervals for this progressed alignment. The results are impressive. Every interval tested was bullish and 8 of the 18 intervals reached statistical significance according to the standard 95% probability threshold (p < 0.05). The first column displays results for the longest 80-day interval ("-40d 40d"). This interval posted a mean and median of more than 5% -- well above the benchmark of 1.53% based on a 7.0% average annual return for the DJIA for 1940-2019. The result was statistically significant (p = 0.049) with 81% of cases (13 of 16) were positive during this interval which yielded a 4.15% Effect Index. Similar results were seen in other intervals. Overall, this alignment was somewhat more bullish before the exact trine although the post-alignment period was also bullish, albeit somewhat less so as none of the intervals reached statistical significance.

The cumulative trend chart below illustrates the extent of this bullish influence. Both the mean and median lines are way above the benchmark. Price changes for the current alignment are also bullish so far. The rate of increase largely ends 25 days after the exact alignment (25d) as the mean and median flatten out thereafter. For the current trine, this equates to Sep 27 as the final date of its bullish influence.

To more closely replicate the current alignment, I limited the cases in the sample to 120-degree trines only, i.e. trines in which the faster-moving Mercury was 120 counterclockwise degrees away from Venus. The results of this very small 8-case sample were similar, although the bullish effect was somewhat less. The cumulative trend chart below shows the net gain over the 80-day test period was between 3.5 to 4.5% -- about one percent less than the larger sample. Given the small sample size, this may easily been the result of normal variation and not due to some intrinsic difference between the 120-degree and 240-degree alignments.

Conclusion

The results of the backtest of this progressed heliocentric alignment are bullish and provide more evidence for gains in August, if not September also. More broadly, this study suggests that heliocentric alignments may be just as useful in forecasting market moves as geocentric alignments. Moreover, it seems that progressed alignments may also have relevance using heliocentric coordinates. While the causal mechanism between Moon-centered tertiary progressions and planetary positions in the Sun-centered system may be difficult to perceive, this persistent correlation may indicate the applicability of progressions within the heliocentric framework.

Implications for this week

Due to its relatively lengthy backtest period, it is difficult to say if the bullish influence of the tertiary progressed Mercury-Venus trine will manifest this week. Since we are within the 40-day run-up period to the exact alignment, gains are certainly possible. And given the bullish effect of the post-alignment period of the Jupiter-Uranus sextile and the upcoming Jupiter-dominated solar eclipse on Aug 12, there is likely to be some positive trading days this week. However, the near-square of Mercury-Saturn and the Saturn-North Node semisquare may yet exert some negative effects on sentiment. We therefore cannot rule out some down days this week. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see last week's low retested and even lower lows are possible. But it seems that the month of August will feature the relative strengthening of bullish alignments and the relative weakening of bearish alignments. The combined effect of these influences suggests a bullish August, even if the early part of the month is more mixed.

Disclaimer: Not intended as investment advice. For educational purposes only.