Mercury retrograde conjunct Jupiter

Can a backwards Mercury actually be bullish at its June 29 station?

US stocks were mostly higher last week on dampened inflation expectations and hopes that AI will fuel productivity growth. While the market sold off Wednesday following hawkish comments from the new incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, most indices were higher on the week as oil extended its slide closing near $75.

The current planetary situation is broadly supportive of this stock market rally. Last Monday's surge after the formalized US-Iran ceasefire deal coincided exactly with an auspicious geocentric alignment of Venus, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto and an even more powerful heliocentric alignment of Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto.

Most of the other more common two-planet alignments suggest a more mixed picture, albeit one that seems more bullish than bearish.

The updated cumulative trend chart of the conjunction of Mars to the NYSE Mercury (exact June 24) has so far not reflected its potential for downside. The current alignment (red line) is way above the long term mean and medians of this alignment and would seem to increase the odds of at least some kind of mean reversion lower in the days ahead.

The June 9 conjunction of Venus and Jupiter is tracking its long term averages. Despite the apparent favorability of these two benefic planets, our backtest study shows this combination is fairly neutral in its effects and is slightly bearish in the period following its conjunction.

However, several other ongoing alignments still look positive for the market. The May 24 alignment of Mars, Pluto and the North Lunar Node has largely delivered on its bullish promise. In fact, the current pattern (red line) has exceeded its already bullish historical performance. As it approaches the end of its 60-day backtest period (June 23), it remains to be seen if this bullish influence will begin to diminish going forward.

It's much the same story with the Uranus-North Node square (exact June 12). The current alignment has exceeded its already bullish historical norms. We would not be surprised if this also reverted lower to the mean and produced some down days in the near term. Nonetheless, this pairing is bullish, although its backtest did not produce statistically significance results.

The upcoming Mars-Uranus conjunction on July 4 is another potentially bullish influence although this has yet to manifest in the stock market. As we get deeper into its 36-day backtest window (June 16-July 22), the probability of market gains increases. Our study found statistically significant gains across several intervals, with the strongest gains (1.76%) focused on the 18 days leading up to the conjunction, i.e. June 16 - July 4.

Mercury turns retrograde June 29: bullish or bearish?

Our study this week is the upcoming Mercury retrograde station on June 29. Mercury retrograde generally has a bad reputation in astrology as it is associated with communication delays, technical breakdowns and frustrations of all kinds. In financial astrology, it is seen as bearish as Mercury, the planet of commerce and trading, begins its backwards journey in the night sky.

But our previous backtest of Mercury retrograde periods shows that it has little effect on stock prices. While there is a slight negative bias (<-1.0%) at various points during its three-week long retrograde period, none of the results reached statistical significance (p < 0.05). Therefore, it is not the slam dunk bearish influence that many people assume it is.

I would suggest that the outcomes of the Mercury retrograde period is dependent on Mercury's alignment with other planets. Near its retrograde and direct stations when it is stationary, Mercury is more likely to coincide with larger price moves due to the prolonged period of alignment. And this need not be bearish at all. If Mercury is aligned with a benefic planet like Jupiter, it could take stocks higher.

This in fact is the set up for the June 29 Mercury retrograde station. When Mercury turns retrograde at 2 Cancer (sidereal)/26 Cancer (tropical), it will form a near-conjunction with Jupiter (5 Cancer/29 Cancer). At its closest, Mercury and Jupiter will be separated by just 3.5 degrees. Since Jupiter is a bullish planet, could this conjunction actually be bullish?

There are several variables to consider here. First, we have to determine if Mercury-Jupiter conjunctions are really as bullish as standard astrological assumptions would suggest. Second, we have to devise a backtest which more closely replicates the current circumstance, i.e. what is the effect of a Mercury-Jupiter conjunction if Mercury stations retrograde at the same time? And even more specifically, what are the market effects if Mercury stations retrograde before it exactly conjoins Jupiter as is the case here?

The Mercury-Jupiter conjunction

The first step is to determine the price effects of Mercury-Jupiter conjunctions. The table below shows the closing prices on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the previous 37 Mercury-Jupiter conjunctions from 2000 to 2026. Prices were recorded at 3-day intervals starting 18 days before the conjunction and ending 18 days after the conjunction.

The summary statistics table below analyzes the price changes at various intervals before and after the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction. There are some surprises here. Far from being bullish, most intervals were actually bearish and some even reached statistical significance. The longest 36-day intervals ("-18d 18d") posted a -1.16% net change with only 43% of cases being positive. This was well below the benchmark of 0.56% based on a 5.6% average annual return for 2000 to 2026. The p-value of 0.037 was below the 95% threshold of 0.05 and thus produced a statistically significant result. The Mercury-Jupiter conjunction is actually bearish across this 36-day window! For shorter intervals, the results tended to be more neutral, however, and some even had a bullish net lean. None were statistically significant.

The cumulative trend chart reveals just how bearish this pairing really is. While there is a short bullish period from about 3 days before the conjunction until 3 or 6 days after, the overall period trends downward. Another shibboleth bites the dust.

Stationary Mercury conjunct Jupiter

But on June 29, we will not see a simple Mercury-Jupiter conjunction. Rather, Mercury will station retrograde while in close 3.5 degree conjunction with Jupiter. In order to replicate these conditions, I compiled a sample of previous times since the launch of the DJIA in 1896 in which stationary Mercury -- direct or retrograde -- was conjunct Jupiter. I used a 5-degree orb in order to include as many conjunctions as possible without diluting the sample with conjunctions that were significantly wider than will occur on June 29. The result is a dataset of 28 cases presented in the table below. I should note that the "0d" dates are organized not by conjunction dates but instead by the date of the Mercury station. Given that June 29 station will not form an exact conjunction with Jupiter, the station date would appear to be a better time marker for measuring any price effect.

Also, the cases were categorized according to whether or not the station occurred before the conjunction ("pre-conj") or after the conjunction ("post-conj"). Since Mercury will station retrograde before Mercury actually conjoins Jupiter ("pre-conj"), it belongs in a separate category from retrograde or direct stations that occur after an exact Mercury-Jupiter conjunction. I also noted which stations were retrograde ("S R") and which were direct ("S D").

The summary statistics table below analyzes the price changes at various intervals before and after the Mercury station. What a difference a station makes! Most intervals were bullish with most of the positive effects concentrated in the period before the station. For example, the second column ("-18d 0d") had a mean return of 2.33% compared with a benchmark of 0.26%. This interval failed to reach statistical significance,however, although it came close (p = 0.087). 67% of those cases were positive.

The cumulative trend chart below illustrates the mostly bullish influence of this alignment. So far, the lead-up to the current stationary Mercury-Jupiter conjunction is generally tracking its historical performance. If previous cases are any guide, further gains are more likely in the period after the retrograde station, although the median line is fairly flat and choppy in the 12-day period nearest the station.

Mercury S R conjunction Jupiter

But we can further narrow our sample by more closely replicating the conditions of the upcoming retrograde station. Therefore, only retrograde stations were chosen and only those which occurred before the conjunction with Jupiter ("pre-conj"). Since Mercury will come to within 3.5 degrees of Jupiter on June 29, it will not exactly conjoin Jupiter until August 15. This is because it will begin its retrograde period on June 29 which will move it further away from Jupiter for the next three weeks. Only after it stations direct on July 23 will it begin its final approach towards Jupiter ahead of its exact conjunction.

A sample of 8 such "pre-conjunction" retrograde station cases was compiled. The summary statistics table below shows the price changes for various intervals before and after the retrograde station. The results are actually more bullish than the undifferentiated stationary Mercury-Jupiter conjunctions above. All the tested intervals had a bullish net lean. For the longest 36-day interval, a 2.87% mean gain was observed, well above the 0.52% average benchmark. The results came close to significance (p = 0.096) and fully 88% of cases were positive (7 of 8). Six intervals did reach statistical significance and another four came close and got the honorable mention asterisk.

The cumulative trend chart below reflects the mostly bullish effects of this unique pattern. In our study, prices experienced a small dip at 9 days before the retrograde station before moving sharply higher until about 6 days after the station. Since our sample was tiny at just 8 cases, we should be careful about assuming any similar patterns this time around. But we should watch out for stronger price moves as we get closer to the June 29 station. If the post-station peak occurs again, this would equate to an short term high near July 6. We shall see.

The takeaway here is that the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction is only reliably bullish when Mercury stations at the same time, and doubly so when it stations retrograde as with our special "pre-conjunction" sample. As we approach the June 29 Mercury retrograde station, there is good reason to expect the market to remain quite bullish. Our backtest shows that such Mercury retrograde stations are closely associated with rising stock prices during its 36-day test period. This equates to June 11 to July 17 for the current alignment.

Implications for this week

The approach of the Mercury retrograde station means that stock prices are more likely to stabilize this week after the Fed-induced volatility last week. Some weakness is still quite possible along the way, however, with the negative influence of the Mars conjunction NYSE Mercury that is exact on Wednesday, June 24. Just how strong this negative influence will be is hard to say although large declines seem less likely and less likely to linger.

Disclaimer: Not intended as investment advice. For educational purposes only.