Clouds on the horizon?

Assessing the impact of the July 30 Saturn-North Node alignment

US stocks rose last week as a tepid jobs report weakened the case for interest rate hikes later in the year. The rotation out of AI-related tech stocks continued for a second straight week as investors sought opportunities elsewhere. The falling price of oil was another tailwind for stocks as crude finished below $70 for the first time since the start of the Iran war.

Last week's gains were not unexpected given the bullish bias of Monday's Mercury retrograde station. Despite its bearish reputation, our backtest study showed that Mercury retrograde is usually bullish when it is conjoins Jupiter as it did last week. Our updated cumulative trend chart shows how the current alignment (red line) is tracking with previous Mercury stations when conjunct Jupiter. If past performance is any guide, further upside is more likely as the mean and median lines are mostly higher 18 days after the date of the Mercury retrograde station.

Other alignments may be contributing to the overall bullish market sentiment. The approach of the Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune-Pluto alignment on July 21 could also be supportive of gains in the month of July. The backtest of the Jupiter-Uranus 60-degree sextile -- one of the components of the larger July 21 alignment -- showed that it is bullish in its own right. The updated cumulative trend chart allows for some choppiness in the early phases of this alignment as its bullish effects tend to be focused after its exact alignment. All other things being equal, this sextile is more likely to be positive for markets after July 11, which is 10 days before ("-10d") the 60-degree alignment. Moreover, it will remain a favorable influence well after its July 21 exact sextile date.

The July 4 Mars-Uranus conjunction is another bullish influence for markets in July. Our backtest of this seemingly volatile pairing showed that is usually a positive influence as seen in the rising mean and median lines. Both significantly exceed the historical benchmarks for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). While the current alignment (red line) got off to a slow start based on the 18-day frame of reference, prices are beginning to catch up to the historical norms for this conjunction. The 36-day conjunction interval from June 16 to July 22 was statistically significant in our study and posted an average gain of 2.9%. While this does not preclude the possibility of a decline in the DJIA during this period (e.g. 80% of previous cases were bullish and 20% were bearish), it increases the probability for further upside at least until July 22.

A somewhat weaker bullish influence is the post-alignment period of the 90-degree square between Uranus and the North Lunar Node. This alignment was exact on June 12. Based on our backtest study of 17 previous cases, mean and median stock prices generally rose at a faster rate than the long-term benchmark. So far, current prices (red line) are way above the already bullish bias for this planetary pairing. It is unclear if this out-performance will continue, especially since the gains in our backtest study did not reach statistical significance for any of the tested intervals.

But overall these four alignments do suggest that the recent strength in the stock market is more likely to continue in the month of July.


Possible Turbulence: Saturn semisquare North Lunar Node (Rahu)

A possible dark cloud in this otherwise sunny landscape could be the Saturn semisquare to the North Node at the end of July. On July 30, Saturn forms a near-exact 45-degree semisquare alignment with the North Node or Rahu, as it is known in Vedic astrology. Due to its retrograde station four days earlier on July 26, Saturn will end up being 5 arc minutes shy of forming an exact semisquare before the aspect begins to separate. Some readers may be unfamiliar with the semisquare aspect. Although used less frequently, it follows the same basic mathematical logic of astrological aspects. Essentially, all aspects are derived from the divisions of the 360-degree circle. When two planets are separated by any of these specific degrees -- 0, 180, 120, 90, 60, 45, etc. -- their respective energies are blended and magnified and more likely to manifest in some tangible and hopefully measurable way. In Vedic astrology, the 45-degree semisquare aspect is transformed into a conjunction in the D-8 varga divisional (i.e. harmonic) chart.

On the face of it, any alignment of these two planets should raise some red flags. Saturn is a natural malefic, of course, and its alignments typically carry some downside risk. The North Lunar Node/Rahu is perhaps less bearish than Saturn by nature, but it nonetheless should be seen as a wild card. As they are prominent during eclipses, the lunar nodes impart of a sense of uncertainty and disruption. In traditional astrology, their association with eclipses is one reason why the nodes are regarded with skepticism. In Vedic astrology, Rahu, the North Node, is considered a natural malefic.

Therefore, the angular combination of Saturn with the North Node sets up a potentially disruptive environment for financial markets. There is even more reason for caution since Saturn will station retrograde on July 26. This will set up a prolonged period of contact between these two planets which could amplify its effects. When Saturn is in normal forward direct motion and the North Node is in its normal backward retrograde motion, this 45-degree alignment lasts about 10-15 days using a one-degree orb (i.e.from 44 to 46 degrees). However, when Saturn's speed slows down as it near its retrograde cycle, this period of close alignment can increase dramatically. For the upcoming semisquare, this alignment between Saturn and the North Node will last for 48 days.from July 11 to Aug 28. Whether or not this is extended period of alignment will be significant depends on the data. In fact, getting a better grasp of this Saturn-North Node semisquare depends entirely on the data. Based on its reputation, we think it could be negative for markets, but it's hard to say with any confidence. The only way to determine the likely effects of this alignment is to examine the data of past alignments and look for any price patterns.

Saturn-45/315-North Lunar Node - price data

The table below shows the closing prices of the DJIA for all previous Saturn-North Node semisquares starting in 1898. Both 45-degree and 315-degree semisquares were included in this sample which consists of 27 cases. By counterclockwise reckoning, a 45-degree angle is formed when the faster moving planet (Saturn, in this case) is moving away from the slower moving planet (North Node). A 315-degree semisquare aspect is formed when Saturn is about to enter the final eighth of its 360-degree synodic journey with the North Node. The table also indicates whether Saturn was in direct ("D") or retrograde ("R") motion.

The summary statistics table below shows the price changes across various intervals before and after the exact semisquare. The first column ("-30d 30d") shows the results for the longest interval. The mean of 0.21%i is somewhat below the benchmark of 0.90% based on a 5.5% average annual return for 1898-2024. The median of 0.88% is virtually the same as the benchmark. And with a little more than half of the cases positive, there is no strong data signal in either direction here. But if we look at shorter intervals, some patterns begin to emerge.

The pre-alignment period is somewhat bullish as evidenced by the second column ("-30d 0d") as both the mean (1.09%) and the median (1.69%) are above the benchmark of 0.45%. The result did not reach statistical significance, however, with a p-value of 0.439. The third column ("0d 30d") shows the bearish bias of the post-alignment period. The mean (-0.81%) and median (-0.38%) are below the benchmark although this result also was not robust enough to reach statistical significance.

The shorter intervals generally repeated this pattern of bullish before/bearish after. On the the whole, the pre-alignment period was only slightly bullish and the positive bias disappeared in intervals shorter than 20 days. The bearish post-alignment period was relatively stronger in its effects, with the 20-day period ("0d 20d") reaching statistical significance by having the lowest p-value (0.042). Only 37% of cases produced positive results. This 20-day post-alignment interval also had the largest Effect Index of any interval at -0.98%.

The bearish bias of this alignment is reflected in the cumulative trend chart below. Not only does the mean bottom out on average 20 days after the exact semisquare, but it falls from a positive interim high in the days immediately preceding the alignment. This total decline from peak to trough is on average about -2.5%.

Narrowing the backtest criteria: Saturn-45-North Node only

But what happens if we limit the sample to only 45-degree semisquares? The upcoming semisquare on July 30 will be a 45-degree alignment and thus estimating its probable effects is likely better served by focusing more narrowly on previous such alignments. The resulting sub-sample is just 13 cases. The summary statistics table below analyzes the price changes before and after various intervals. The results are fairly similar to the larger sample of 45 and 315-degree alignments. The longer interval that combine the pre- and post-alignment periods are fairly neutral while the pre-alignment period of somewhat bullish. As before, the post-alignment periods are somewhat bearish.

Perhaps not surprisingly given the tiny sample size of 13, none of the interval results reached statistical significance. If there is a difference with the larger sample, it is that the price changes are larger. The 20-day pre-alignment period ("-20d 0d") had larger mean gains (1.05%) and median gains (1.62%) while the 20-day post-alignment period ("0d 20d") had slightly larger declines (mean -1.90%; median -2.22%).

The cumulative trend chart below broadly reflects this same bullish before/bearish after pattern, although the chart is messy. This chaotic price chart may be an artifact of the small sample size.

Narrower still: Saturn Rx-45-North Node only

If we want to better replicate the current planetary set up, we can narrow our data sample even further since Saturn will be retrograde at the time of its semisquare alignment on July 30. However, this yields a sample of just 4 cases. It is difficult to get too excited about a sample this small since it is barely distinguishable from anecdotal data. Nonetheless, it does better approximate the late July alignment in its key features. This n=4 sample is the basis for the cumulative trend chart below. Interestingly, even with such a small sample, the basic pattern occurs once again: bullish before/bearish after. One additional difference is the extent to which stocks were bullish in the pre-alignment period. The peak is more than 3% above the 30-day starting point before the semisquare. This suggests the extent of the decline form peak to trough is somewhat larger than in the other samples. The peak also occurs earlier, at 10 days prior to the alignment. However, with such a small sample it would be a mistake to read too much into these results other than as basic confirmatory evidence for the overall effect.

One other current condition must remain unexamined, however, namely the role of the Saturn retrograde station. While Saturn was retrograde for those four cases as it will be in late July, none of the other alignments occurred when Saturn was near a station, i.e. it had little to no relative motion. Retrograde and direct stations are considered more powerful phenomena which can amplify the effects of planetary alignments. It is therefore possible that the July 30 semisquare between Saturn and the North Node could have stronger effects than these previous cases in which Saturn is merely retrograde. This could manifest as a more pronounced bullish pre-alignment period and/or a more bearish post-alignment period. Anything is possible, of course, but the absence of any data on this particular condition unfortunately leaves this as a matter for speculation.

Conclusion

Overall, this analysis suggests that the Saturn-North Node semisquare is more likely to coincide with a decline in stocks in the 2-3 week period following the alignment on July 30. This timing fits neatly with the aftermath of the four-planet Jupiter alignment that is exact on July 20-21. It would seem to mark the shift from bullish Jupiter-centered energy to a more bearish energy from the Saturn-based alignment. And yet if we can trust the data, it is more likely that this decline may be fairly modest, say between 2-4%. To be sure, the presence of the Saturn station may further increase the downside risk, but there is no data to support a doom-laden bearish scenario. It's certainly possible, but it is not empirically justifiable.

Implications for this week

Since we have only just entered the 30-day pre-alignment backtest period for the Saturn-North Node alignment, there is no necessary impact this week from this aspect. The ongoing influence from the other aforementioned alignments will likely shape the market in the week ahead. Since these are mostly bullish, the case for more upside has more empirical support. And yet, the data also suggest some choppiness is very possible, as seen in the Jupiter-Uranus sextile data which indicated some sideways movement before hitting its -10d day mark which falls on July 11 for the current alignment.

And yet the overarching bullish logic of the larger Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune-Pluto alignment on July 21 should be seen as bolstering sentiment in the coming weeks. Here again, however, the paucity of data means we have to do some extrapolation to make some sense of its effects. There were only two previous cases of alignments involving those same four planets and one was bullish and one was bearish. I suggested that the bearish July 1966 case was atypical due to a prominent Saturn alignment which was missing in the bullish Nov 1911 case, and indeed in our current July 2026 alignment. While the data is sometimes sparse and fragmentary, the weight of the evidence still favors the bull case for most of July.

Disclaimer: Not intended as investment advice. For educational purposes only.